We have broken down the trend of the Atlanta Hawks in the last decade, plotting the number of wins in the regular season and correlating the up & down trends with the main roster changes and additional disrupting events.
In the 3 seasons between 2007-2008 and 2009-2010 the Hawks, under the head coach Drew, put their focus on a young core consisting of:
- PG Mike Bibby
- SG Joe Johnson
- SF Marvin Williams
- PF Josh Smith
- C Al Horford
Starting from a baseline of 30 victories in the 2006-2007 season, the Hawks reab the benefits of the growth of the young nucleus and the consolidated team chemistry, reaching the 53 W’s of the 2009-2010 season.
In the 2010-11 season the trend is turned around following the change behind the wheel, from coach Drew to coach Woodson, and the loss of point guard Mike Bibby replaced in the starting five by Jeff Teague. The result is a drop of 9 wins, for a total of 44 W’s.
The downward trend is partially reversed in the following year ended with a record of 40-26 (short season due to the lock-out) that projected over 82 games equals 50W.
The dismantling of the original core continues with the departure of two other starting five elements, Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams, replaced by Korver and Stevenson respectively, move worth a fall of 6 w’s.
In the 2013-2014 season the Budenholzer era starts.
The starting 5 loses another historical element, Josh Smith, replaced by the more concrete Paul Millsap. Stevenson in SF is also replaced by the 3&D Carroll, but bad luck comes on the team losing his pillar Al Horford for 53 games due to injury. The season ends with 38 victories.
In the following year we witness the main "rebound" of the decade. With almost unchanged staff but with the recovery of Al Horford, Atlanta reaches 60 regular season victories from "underdog".
The Budenholzer system is quickly bringing its fruits.
In the 2015-16 season there is an apparently minor change in the starting five: Carroll out and Bazemore in. The Hawks cannot regain the chemistry of the previous year and see the number of wins drop conspicuously stopping at 48.
The magic moment culminated with the amazing peak of 60 wins in 2015 seems to have vanished, and the team's backbone begins to crumble.
In the season 2016-17 Horford leaves replaced by Dwight Howard, and Teague as well replaced by Schroder promoted to starter. The downhill continues and the season closes with only 43 W.
The Hawks management then decides to set the "rebuilding mode" releasing at the end of the season 3 elements of its starting five: Howard, Korver and Millsap, replaced respectively by Dedmon, Prince and Ilyasova. With the expected collapse (23 W) Atlanta ends up in the lottery winning the pick # of the the 2018 draft, potentially valid to select Slovenian star Luka Doncic, but then trades with Dallas for pick #5, resulting in Trae Young, and a lottery-protected first round pick in 2019.
Forecast 2018-19
The depth chart of the Hawks sees a substantial change in the PG after trading Schroder to the Thunder, whose place will be disputed by Jeremy Lin and Trae Young.
On the paper losing Schroder should hurt in the first year, but the German PG had negative BPM and VOP last year. The expected trend is therefore basically stable with potential slight worsening for the next season.
Schizoid Zen
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