Purpose
A few weeks ago, Basket Maniacs editorial board had asked a question to our analysts: "who was the best Lebronbuster of the season recently concluded?"
This initial trigger led to an innovative analytical approach to determine a ranking based on objective data derived from statistics easily available on the web.
We re-proposed the approach by shifting our focus to Kevin Durant, MVP of the last 2 editions of the NBA Finals and devastating offensive weapon of the juggernaut Golden State Warriors. The results are again very interesting...
Approach
By using the "matchup" field in NBA.com/Stats, it is now possible to analyze each player's individual defensive matchups and consequently derive the performance indicators of each defender.
Starting from the statistics available on the NBA website, analysts Basket Maniacs have extrapolated 2 indicators to measure defensive performance:
- Percentage of finalizing possessions (%FinPos)
- Points generated for finalizing possession (PtsFinPos)
Is it called“finalizing possession”a possession concluded by a field goal attempt, a free throw, an assist, a turnover or an offensive foul.
While the usage of ”Points generated per Finalizing Possession” gives an indisputable idea about how much the defender is able to make opponents life not too easy, the “Percentage of Finalizing Possessions” is an indirect parameter that allows to measure the points prevented keeping the ball out of King James hands in favor of less efficient teammates.
Knowing the %FinPos and the PtsFinPos a KPI for the overall ranking of the defensive performance is derived, taking into account the average values against Lebron in Regular Season:
- Average Percentage of Finalizing Possessions: 47%
- Average points generated per finalizing possessions: 1,29 (compared with 1,01 of his teammates)
The main defensive KPI is defined “Prevented points per possession” and is calculated as follows:
PrevPtsPoss = ((1,29-PtsFinPos)*%FinPos+(1,29-1,01)*(%NonFinPos-0,53))*100
Selection criteria
For each team we have identified the designated "Durantbuster", looking at the number of matchups in coverage on KD. The percentage of Durant possessions defended by the same player transfers an idea of the level of confidence of each team towards their aspiring Durantbuster. In the case of percentages <50% we have selected the 2 highest values per team. Each player assigned for at least 20% of the possessions to KD made anyway the cut.
Candidates
Below is the complete list of candidates for the "Basketball Maniacs Durantbuster Award 2017-18" with relative percentage of assignment.
In total 53 players went to the final phase of the “Basket Maniacs DurantBuster Award”, whereof 10 only as candidates to an “honorable mention” since they had only 1 relevant game (much too less to derive consistent statement on the defensive performance of the involved player).
Specialists
An in-depth analysis of the number of defensive matchups allows us to derive a ranking of the major "anti-Durant" specialists, chosen among those who guarded KD35 for the highest percentage of possessions.
2 teams out of 29 have a "KD-specialist" guarding the n. 35 Warriors for more than 50% of the possessions, while another 9 teams have a designed defender with at least 40% of the matchups. Bogdan Bogdanovic of the Pacers stands out, engaged in 66% of the matchups on Durant, followed byStanley Johnson and Thabo Sefolosha with percentages slightly higher than 60%.
Among the most "confusing" teams, Dallas has 4 players at least 20% committed to KD (Kleber, Powell, Matthews, Barnes), a completely opposite choice to the anti-Lebron strategy that instead provides the almost total abnegation of Wes Matthews.
Points generated for finalizing possession
We have already shown in our previous article dedicated to Lebron James, how reputation, hype and stomach feeling often do not get along with data and numbers. The chart below shows the "points for finalizing possession" allowed to Durant by each designated defender. Once again, the language of numbers reveals a partially unseen vision of the facts.
Wesley Matthews, in our previous study highlighted among the absolute excellence in coverage on Lebron James, is positioned exactly in correspondence with the NBA average value, equal to 1.28 PtsFinPoss. Among the excellences, almost in perfect ex-aequo the trio Dante Cunningham, Marcus Morris and PJ Tucker with a fine 0.8 PtsFinPoss, followed closely by the winner of the "Basket Maniacs LebronBuster Award" James Johnson of the Miami Heat.
Worst of all, instead, Hardaway Jr. and Winslow with 1.8 PtsFinPoss, but among the negative surprises, we could also include players with good defensive reputation such as Middleton and Crowder.
Percentage of finalizing possessions
In the previous breakdown, we had shown how keeping the ball away from Lebron was always a profitable strategy, since "King James" produces 1.29 points for finalizing possession where his teammates stay on average at 1.01.
In the case of Kevin Durant the contribution of this factor is much more limited given the excellent offensive efficiency of the Warriors (1.20 PtsFinPoss), for which it is inappropriate to speak of a true supporting cast.
In the next graph, we can see the partial ranking on this parameter. Joe Ingles (UTA) deploys this defensive strategy in the extreme way, allowing only 24% of the finalizing possessions, followed by Crowder (UTA), Gallinari (LAC) and Hardaway Jr. (NYK)
At the other end of the line is the defensive approach of Kidd-Gilchrist (CHA) and Richardson (MIA) who face Durant's finalizing possessions in 57% of the cases.
Overall rating
After diving into the various individual contributions, it is time to draw conclusions and unveil the final ranking based on "points prevented for 100 possessions" (PrevPtsPoss) starting from the bottom
Bringing up the rear
Following the analysis of the "LebronBuster Award" data, we invoked the intervention of Amnesty International to protect the human rights of Paul Zipser when coupled with LBJ. The 1.64 points for finalizing possession that generate -22.9 points per 100 possessions seemed to us a show cruel enough to force us to awaken our humanity.
With Maurice Harkless (Portland) on Durant we have touched new peaks in the history of sports cruelty. The 1.94 PtsFinPoss allowed by the wing of the Blazers correspond to the almost automatic certainty that possession will end with a basket, an authentic defensive hemorrhage that lasts for 26% of the possessions of KD. This results in an alarming value of -31.8 points per 100 possessions, graphically represented by a negative "off chart" in the overall ranking.
Sieves
Mo Harkless with his nefarious defensive matchup markers digs the Marianne Trench of the "summary chart", shadowing other valuable "sieves" positioned in the -2σarea of the statistical distribution:
- Justise Winslow (MIA) -22.8 PrevPtsPoss
- Otto Porter (WAS) -20.0
- Khris Middleton (MIL) -15.8
Double-digit deficits are also recorded for Aaron Gordon, curiously positioned in the top 10 of LebronBuster, Stanley Johnson, sophomore of good defensive reputation, and Harrison Barnes, Durant's predecessor in the Warriors.
Below average
Within the -1σ area of the statistical distribution other unsuspected names catch our attention: Jazz Crowder (-7.8), Hornets Kidd-Gilchrist (-7.0), Raptors Anunoby (-3.6) and Kyle Anderson, one of the best LebronBuster (- 2.4).
Frontrunners
The record for the best DurantBuster sees a close fight among the first 4 classified, considerably above the NBA average:
- Marcus Morris 17.7 PtsPrev100Poss
- Dante Cunningham 17.7
- PJ Tucker 16.4
- James Johnson 14.8
3 of the 4 names at the top are a confirmation compared to what we saw in the similar analysis on Lebron James: James Johnson was the best LebronBuster of the regular season, Cunningham had positioned in the top 10, and Marcus Morris had posted values above average compared to one of the most massive jobs in coverage on James
Not surprising the 5th place of Giannis Antetokoumpo, since his immense physical-athletic means predispose him to be a natural antidote to KD's offensive omnipotence, while it is astonishing the excellent 6th place of Jrue Holyday, which is the designated Pelicans for the marking of the Warriors wing despite the 20 cm less.
In the top 10 we also find Jaylen Brown, who has already stood out for our excellent results against LBJ, as well as good reputation defensive athletes such as Covington, Paul Georgeand Evan Turner.
Playoff
The PtsPrevPoss values of each player who defended at least 5% of the Kevin Durant possessions are shown in the bubble diagram shown below. Key findings:
1) In the top 10 of the best playoff DurantBuster we find only players with a percentage of defensive matchup on KD below 15%. Among those who defended on KD for more than 15% of his possessions, Rudy Gay was the only one able to achieve a PtsPrevPoss (slightly) higher than 0 (thus higher than the NBA average). It seems that the 2-fold MVP of the NBA Finals continues to be a prohibitive undertaking for any human being to put his feet on the hardwood.
2) New Orleans is the best-equipped team to counter Durant's excessive power. Although the designated defender Holyday achieved a PtsPrevPoss <0 value (anyway the 3rd best value among those with% DefPoss> 20%), 3 Pelicans were among the top6s of the POs:
o Anthony Davis with his 19.3 PtsPrevPoss marks the best value among all the defenders of the OPs, even if achieved in a little representative 6.3% of the possessions of KD
o Nikola Mirotic in spite of his not excellent defensive reputation has scored a very valuable 16.4 PtsPrevPoss (on 13.3% of the possessions of Durant) sufficient to guarantee him an undisputed second place.
o Solomon Hill with 8.8 PtsPrevPoss is placed in 6th place
So few possibilities for KD to systematically exploit the weak link of a defense well equipped to contain it, apart from 5% of matchups coupled with Rajon Rondo (-14.3 PtsPrevPoss) saved by only George Hill of San Antonio entitled of "black sheep".
3) After trading Crowder to the Jazz, the designated defender of Cleveland is, lo and behold, Lebron James, coupled to KD in 40% of his possessions. His -8.7 PtsPrevPoss are not a great guarantee of success for the Cavs, unable to find adequate answers to the immense arsenal offensive of the Warriors swingman.
Conclusion
Let us go back to the original question of the editorial staff: "Who was the best Lebronbuster of the season recently concluded?"
We have deployed our innovative analytical approach to measure the defensive performance of each player, based on the statistics available on the matchup of each game, using the "prevented points per possession” as final parameter to rank the best DurantBuster.
“Basket Maniacs Lebronbuster Award 2017-18” is assigned ex-aequo to Marcus Morris (Boston Celtics) and Dante Cunningham (New Orleans Pelicans)
We are going to extend our analytical approach to other NBA top scorer. Next stop: Giannis Antetokoumpo!
If you wish to deepen the methodology and contents of our study you can contact us through our facebook page, we will be glad to answer all your questions.
-Schizoid Zen-
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