Purpose
Despite the sweep in the Finals by hands of the juggernaut Golden State Warriors, Lebron James showed unequivocal signs of dominance in the NBA Playoff 2018 consolidating himself as the most unstoppable force of the modern basketball. Finding a way to limit the devastating impact of King James is the puzzling rebus each NBA coach has to solve at least twice a year.
The question posed by Basket Maniacs editorial board to our data analyst was: who has been the best “LebronBuster” in the recently closed NBA season?
Our data analyst developed a special approach for a (relatively) simple evaluation based on stats available in the net and came to very interesting conclusion…
Approach
Using the matchup field in NBA.com/Stats it is starting from this year possible to breakdown the individual defensive matchups for all players and consequently derive some metrics to rank the most effective defenders.
Out of the available stats Basket Maniacs data analyst extrapolated 2 index to measure the defensive performance:
- Percentage of Finalizing Possessions (%FinPos)
- Points generated per Finalizing Possessions (PtsFinPos)
Is it called“finalizing possession”a possession concluded by a field goal attempt, a free throw, an assist, a turnover or an offensive foul.
While the usage of ”Points generated per Finalizing Possession” gives an indisputable idea about how much the defender is able to make opponents life not too easy, the “Percentage of Finalizing Possessions” is an indirect parameter that allows to measure the points prevented keeping the ball out of King James hands in favor of less efficient teammates.
Knowing the %FinPos and the PtsFinPos a KPI for the overall ranking of the defensive performance is derived, taking into account the average values against Lebron in Regular Season:
- Average Percentage of Finalizing Possessions: 47%
- Average points generated per finalizing possessions: 1,29 (compared with 1,01 of his teammates)
The main defensive KPI is defined “Prevented points per possession” and is calculated as follows:
PrevPtsPoss = ((1,29-PtsFinPos)*%FinPos+(1,29-1,01)*(%NonFinPos-0,53))*100
Selection criteria
For each team we have identified the designated “LebronBuster” looking at the amount of defensive matchup per game. The percentage of Lebron possessions defended by the same player returns the confidence level of each team on his (or their) LebronBuster. In case of percentage < 50% we have selected the 2 highest per team. Every player defending at least 30% of James possessions made anyhow the cut.
Candidates
Hereby the complete list of candidates to the “Basket Maniacs Lebronbuster Award 2017-18” with respective percentage of defensive assignment on Lebron James:
In total 42 players went to the final phase of the “Basket Maniacs LebronBuster Award”, whereof 10 only as candidates to an “honorable mention” since they had only 1 relevant game (much too less to derive consistent statement on the defensive performance of the involved player).
“Specialists”
A deep dive on the amount of defensive matchups allows ranking the “Lebron specialists”, the defenders who were assigned to “King James” for a shareholder > 50%.
The graph above shows the first singularity related to Wesley Matthews, whose figures look often off chart, even if based on a very limited sample (only 1 game played against Cleveland). Spending almost the complete time assigned on the human armored tank with the number 23, the Mavericks Shooting Guard would deserve an additional fee for arduous work.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jimmy Butler are the only other 2 players assigned for more than 60% of their playing time on LBJ. It is also interesting to notice that around 50% of the NBA team have a clearly designated LBJ (hoping) stopper, while all the other have to handover the ungrateful task to 2 or more players. Sacramento, Washington and Chicago stand out among the worse equipped for that.
Points allowed per finalizing possession
Reputation, hype and stomach feeling often do not get along with data and figures. The graph below diagrams the points allowed by each designated defender for each scoring possession of Lebron James. The ranking will give also surprises to the most attentive basketball fans.
Percentage of finalizing possessions
Pushing the ball as much as possible away from Lebron is always a wise idea, since he has produced 1.29 pts per finalizing possessions while his teammates produce in average 1.01 pts.
In the graph below, you can see the ranking for this category.
Anunoby(TOR), Butler (MIN) and once again Matthews(DAL) excel allowing only 30% finalizing possessions.
On the bottom side it jumps to the eyes that the matchups with Wall led to finalizing possessions in 2 out of 3 actions, as basically understandable since the Wizards PG is not the designated primary defender, but rather is forced to face James by each defensive switch.
Very detached by Wall, Simmons(PHI) and Zipser(CHI) follow with 57% each.
Overall rating
After a dive in the different contributors to the overall assessment, it is time to come to the proper rating based on the “Prevented points for 100 possessions” (PrevPtsPoss), starting from the bottom:
Bringing up the rear
Paul Zipserof the Chicago Bulls is an absolute sieve when coupled with Lebron James. His figures are off chart, but in the wrong direction. The German Forward allows 1,64 points for each finalizing possessions his defense generates a -22,9 prevented points for 100 possessions. Whenever Zipser defends the King, good-hearted people should alert Amnesty International to stop the cruel show. The Bulls are so bad equipped for containing the strongest swingman, that they assign Zipser on Lebron for 57% of overall possessions. Scottie Pippen where are you???
Unsuspected sieves
Paul Zipser’s defensive figures are so bad that he runs his own race, but other unsuspected defensive sieves find their place in the -2σ area of the statistic distribution:
- Wilson Chandler (DEN) -13.2 PrevPtsPoss
- Brandon Ingram (LAL) -10.6
- Taurean Prince (ATL) -8.3
- Otto Porter (WAS) -7.9
Below average
Speaking of bad surprises, other names catch our eyes:
Marcus Morrishas been heralded during the playoff as one of the best Lebronstopper of the league, but his performance during the regular season (-7.0 PrevPts100Poss) ranks quite low, a few tenth shy of the -2σ zone of the statistical normal distribution. In the playoff Morris defended more Lebron’s possession (225) than anybody else not named Bogdan Bogdanovic, producing praiseworthy 3.9 PrevPts100Poss, but 3 Celtics were better than him, even if at significantly lower amount of matchups.
Slightly below average also the unexpected Antetokoumpo, Millsap and Carroll, as well as the expected Ben Simmons.
Frontrunners
The ranking of the Regular Season is dominated by Dallas swingman Wesley Matthewswho in his single game played versus Cleveland produced eyes-popping defensive stats:
- 13.2 prevented points per 100 possession
- 90% matchup vs Lebron
- 30.7 % finalizing possession allowed (league average 47%)
It may sound as not representative due to the small statistical base, but the figures are so good that Matthews deserves a nomination.
Second place for the MMA fighter James Johnson with his 11.9 PrevPts100Poss. Heat Forward has strength, athleticism and guts to slow down as far as humanly possible the cyborg with n.23 jersey.
Completing the list of the frontrunners for the “Lebronbuster Award” we find several underhyped names like Clippers Thornwelland Pelicans Cunningham, as well as the Croatian forward Mario Hezonja from the Orlando Magic, which is the only team to put 2 names in the top 10 (being Aaron Gordon the 2nd).
JuliusRandle does not have an ackownledged stopper reputation, but his strength and mobility work well against Lebron. As skinny as he can look like, even Kyle Anderson took over the hard job from the injured Kawhi and was able to limit the devastating potential of LBJ.
A special case has to be made for Kevin Durant, whose stats are extremely confusing:
- Regular season +8,4 PrevPts100Poss
- Playoff -8.6
Clearly, KD has all the tools to be a good defender against his big rival, but in the post-season he saved lot of efforts in his half court, preferring to invest on the offensive part of the game. Looking at the stats of all Warriors in the PO it seems that the NBA champions decided to win just outscoring their opponents, instead of trying to limit them in defense.
Playoff
During the playoff, Lebron James tried to compensate the inadequate contribution of his teammates elevating (if ever possible) the level of his game. His PtsFinPoss increased from 1.29 to 1.31 making the defenders life more troublesome than in the RS.
The diagram below plots the performance of each player who has defended at least 5% of James possessions against his team, where Boston’s defense stands out:
As many as 5 Celtics players produced positive “prevented points per possession”. The above-mentioned Morris places himself at 4thplace with +3.9 PrevPtsPoss, but 3 of his teammates were widely better:
- Marcus Smart +12.8
- Jaylen Brown +12.4
- Terry Rozier +12.1
Brad Stevens can order defense switch by each pick & roll since even for the best basketballer in the world it is not easy to exploit any weak points in the tight Celtics defense.
Contrary to the Warriors, the Boston Celtics tried to win the series by means of their gritty defense, but they fall short due to offensive shortcomings in the decisive G7.
The situation of the Golden State Warriors is quite different, with Durant managing the biggest part of the defense on the King, but with mediocre results, definitively out of tune respect the excellent RS indicators, as already mentioned.
Similarly, the values of PrevPtsPoss achieved by Draymond Green (-10) are not up to its fame. It looks like the NBA champions this year relied on their huge self-confidence and on the firm belief that they can under any circumstances score more than their opponents.
A separate chapter deserves an apparent "statistical anomaly" found in Steph Curry's indicators. Although not a mediocre defender in absolute terms, the son of Dell and Sonya is clearly the sensitive target that each attack tries to exploit when facing, especially when the mismatch brings an edge of 15 cm and 25 kg.
What might sound like a plot already written, however, ends up having a less obvious outcome than you might think, because in the game of moves and countermoves of the long-standing chess between Cavs and Warriors this situation is almost obvious and the defense is never caught aback, adapting promptly.
The end result is a paradoxical +23.8 PrevPts100Poss made by Curry in the 32 possessions in which he found himself opposed to James. Given the reduced percentage of events, the data is not very representative, but it reminds us to read beyond the statistics.
Conclusions
Let us go back to the original question of the editorial staff:
"Who was the best Lebronbuster of the season recently concluded?"
We can state that we have defined an analytical approach to measure the defensive performance of each player, based on the statistics available on the matchup of each game.
The final parameter to define a ranking of the best Lebronbuster has been named "prevented points per possession”
Mavs swingman Wesley Matthews deserves an "honorable mention" for achieving the best results, even if based only on a game played.
The winner of "Basket Maniacs Lebronbuster Award 2017-18" is therefore James Johnson, forward of the Miami Heat.
In the upcoming articles we will extend this analytical approach to the other best NBA scorers.
Please send us your preferences on our facebook page: the most voted player will be analyzed in the next work of the Basket Maniacs data analyst!
-Schizoid Zen-
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