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BASKET MANIACS PENTATHLON OF NBA MATCHUPS – 1ST ISSUE: FORWARD (ENG)

Put yourself in an NBA player shoes. You have only one goal, to win a ring, but the history of the last 10 years delivers you an important “lessons learned”: if you long for a Championship, you must be able to contain the overwhelming offensive arsenal of the strongest wingman of the league.

Following the approach deployed in our “Basket Maniacs LebronBuster Award” we asked ourselves: who were the best defenders on the 5 most unstoppable NBA forwards?

Our analysts have processed the statistics of all defensive matchups on Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, deriving a ranking of the best matchups defenders currently in circulation.


Welcome to the first issue of “BASKET MANIACS PENTATHLON of NBA MATCHUPS”!


Selection criteria


  • As main indicator of defensive performance, the concept of "prevented points for 100 possessions" (PtsPrev100Poss) developed by analysts Basket Maniacs (see for example the recent Basket Maniacs AntetoBuster Award) was taken into consideration: PrevPtsPoss= ((AvPtsFinPos-PtsFinPos)*%FinPos+(PtsFinPos-TeamPtsFinPos)* (%NonFinPos-Av%NonFinPos))*100

  • The chosen Key Performance Indicator quantifies the difference between points generated by a specific player (per 100 possessions) in matchups against a certain defender and the average points generated during the entire season.

  • For the final phase, the 15 defenders were selected with the best-combined value of PrevPtsPoss weighted on the number of possessions.

  • Only defenders who have faced a minimum of 20 possessions against at least 3 of the 5 members of the "pentathlon" have been admitted to the final phase.

  • Defenders who received a negative “PrevPts100Poss” index with at least 2 of the 5 pentathlon members were excluded.



Cockpit Chart


For each of the finalists a cockpit chart was created that summarizes the defensive statistics against the 5 “test benches” of the pentathlon:


- Prevented Point per 100 possessions (PrevPts100Poss)

- True Shooting Percentage (TS%)

- Points per Scoring Possession (PtsScPoss)



Finalists


Here below the qualifiers for the final phase of the "Basket Maniacs Pentathlon of NBA matchups" (cat. Forward):




Final ranking

For each finalist of the "Basketball Maniacs Pentathlon of NBA matchups" we have plotted the performance against the 5 dreadnoughts in terms of:


- Prevented Points per 100 Possession (PrevPts100Poss)

- True Shooting Percentage (TS%)

- Points per Scoring Possessions


The impact of the finalist defense respect the NBA average is visually represented on each cockpit chart.


Let us get under way with our countdown starting from 2 “honorable mention”.


Honorable mention - Mario Hezonja (NYK)

Mario Hezonja is the name you do not expect on this list, but his performance indicators against Lebron, Giannis and Kawhi are of absolute elite and would probably have allowed him to reach the podium if he had scored a sufficient number of matchups on Durant and George.

Mario's defensive grit allowed him to earn 24 starting five (out of 58 games) despite his underachieving offensive game (41% FG, and 27% from 3). Particularly impressive are the performances against Leonard and Antetokounmpo, both greatly limited when coupled with the Croatian forward.

The most iconic moment of his season undoubtedly remains the block on a Lebron game winner (link).




Honorable mention – Malcolm Brogdon (MIL)


The rookie of the year 2017 is one of those players who despite constantly passing under radar can influence a game in multiple ways. Combo guard of 1.96cm for 103kg, member of the exclusive club 90/50/40, he does not turn the ball over very often, and he’s a very effective defender not only on guards, but on the forwards as well by virtue of his size and strength.

In the Eastern Conference final, Brogdon was a factor when defending Kawhi, limiting him to 47% True Shooting (against playoff average of 63%) and generating +10.6 "prevented points for 100 possessions" against the Raptors star , absolute first among all players with at least 20 matchups valid during the playoffs.




7° place – Jrue Holiday (NOP)


The only guard in the top 7 of the Basket Maniacs Penthatlon, Jrue Holiday manages to compensate with his relentless defense for the conspicuous gap of centimeters and pounds against the strongest wingman of the league.

The Pelicans guard had for the first time shown to the general public his defensive skills during the 2018 Playoffs when he was assigned, with satisfactory results, as primary defender on Kevin Durant in the first round against the Warriors.

This year the Californian guard made a further leap gaining the NBA All-Defensive Team honors.

The defensive indicators of Jrue Holiday are above the average in 4 of the 5 cases analyzed, with a remarkable peak of effectiveness in the defense on Kawhi Leonard. The only "black sheep" for him is Lebron James, against whom the shooting guard of New Orleans achieved results considerably below the NBA average.




6° place – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (CHA)


Chosen with the pick n.2 of the 2012 draft (behind Kentucky teammate Anthony Davis and ahead of Beal, Lillard and Drummond), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist found a place in the league despite his strong offensive limitations (7/36 from 3 in the first 6 years among the pros, 16/47 in 2018-19) thanks to the contribution in his halfcourt.

Acknowledged defensive specialist, MKG shows up to his fame in matchups against the best forwards of the league. His performance against Leonard and George was excellent, although referring to a small number of possessions and even the defense vs “the Greek Freak” was very effective, while Kevin Durant was the only “bête noire” against which MKG could not achieve higher indicators respect the NBA average.




5° place – Wesley Matthews (IND)


Well known to Basket Maniacs analysts for his exploit in the “Lebronbuster” (LINK), Wes Matthews confirms himself above-average defender also against the other 4 forward elites of our pentathlon, without however excelling in any category.

Despite his age (32 years) and the injury he suffered in the Achilles tendon in 2015, Matthews is still a tireless defender who usually takes the biggest workload in the matchups against the most dangerous external opponents. His role as a designated stopper took a hit after the trade that led him to Indiana due to the presence of a teammate with very similar characteristics. To find out whom we are talking about we will only have to wait to reveal the No. 4 of our Pentathlon…




4° place – Bojan Bogdanovic (IND)


In the first 5 years of his pro career, Bojan Bogdanovic had to fight against the prejudice that affects many European players accused of being "offense oriented" and listless defenders. Tired of being constantly undervalued for his contribution in his midfield, Bojan forced many NBA fans to change his mind during the 2018 playoffs, when he heroically sacrificed himself to defend on a devastating Lebron.

In reality, the Serbian guard is one of the spearheads of the outstanding Indiana Pacers defense, capable of achieving above-average performances in each of the pentathlon disciplines, and reaching his peak in coverage of Antetokounmpo and Leonard.

Bogdanovic’s result is even more valuable as it was achieved in the face of a large number of matchups against each of the top 5 player of our pentathlon, Bojan being to all intents and purposes the designated one who is entrusted most of the defensive burden on the most dangerous wings opponents.




3° place – PJ.Tucker


Finally arrived at the podium of our "Basketball Maniacs Pentathlon of NBA matchups", in third place we find a defender of excellent reputation for whoever judges relying on the "eye tests" rather than the boxscores.

Purposely signed by the Rockets to take care of the opponents top scorer, PJ Tucker has undoubtedly paid back the expectations of the Texans, narrowly missing the recognition of the 2nd NBA All-Defensive team in favor of Kawhi Leonard.

Toughand physical defender, PJ is able to make life more difficult for any opponent, as confirmed by the positive values ​​of "PrevPts100Poss" achieved against all the top 5 forwards.

With the Rockets put "on sale" by Daryl Morey it cannot be ruled out that Tucker will change jersey next season, and you can be sure that several contenders will listen with great interest to phone calls from Texas.




2° place – James Johnson (MIA)


Winner of the "Basket Maniacs Lebronbuster Award" (if you want a visual check take a look at this link) and 4th place in the "Durantbuster" (see link), James Johnson is an extraordinary defender on man by virtue of physical strength, athleticism and attitude. The defensive indicators when assigned to Lebron, Durant, Antetokounmpo and George are amazing, but his unique idiosyncrasy costs him the title in our "pentathlon": Kawhi Leonard.

Against the silent killer in the n.2 jersey Raptors the Miami Heat forward achieved an awful -30.5 PrevPts100Poss, accompanied by an eloquent 87% of TS%. Almost inexplicable slipup that nails down JJ in second place in the "Basketball Maniacs Pentathlon of NBA matchups" waiting for a possible redemption in the 2019-2020 season.

It is hard to imagine Miami fighting for the ring next season, so any contender looking for a defensive stopper is at least alerted...




1° place – Evan Turner


At the end of our countdown we once again find an old acquaintance of the Basket Maniacs analysts, reigning "Antetobuster", Evan Turner.

The new acquired Hawks swingman wins the prize not only for the excellent performance against the league MVP, but also for having managed to achieve a positive score in all other pentathlon disciplines.

Object of mixed feelings on the part of passionate Blazers fans, torn between frustration for his modest offensive contribution and awareness of his strenuous defense and good playmaking skills, Turner was among all player admitted to the final phase of our “pentathlon” the best one in terms of prevented points per possession, weighted on the total number of matchups.

After having caught off guard many experts with their playoff ride up to the Western Finals, the Blazers got rid of ET in favor of Kent Bazemore, but it will only be next season to show whether the move was fruitful or far from it...




After having crowned the champion of the first edition of the "Basket Maniacs Pentathlon of NBA matchups”, we call for next appointment dedicated to the NBA guards.

Stay tuned!


-Schizoid Zen-

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